The 2020 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP), was unveiled by
the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) with much expectation from various
sectors of the economy.
The SRP report which usually guide the sectors was released
officially by the Honourable, Minister of Aviation, Senator Hardi Sirika on
Tuesday, January 21, 2020 at Abuja, the Federal Capital City of Nigeria.
Grow your business with us
While giving some details of the prediction, the Minister
announced that the predicted 2020 onset of the growing season is expected to be
‘near-normal to earlier than normal in most parts of the country’ with the
earliest onset date likely to occur on the 24th of February around the coastal
zone of the south-south states while states like Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina,
Jigawa, Yobe and Borno are predicted to likely have their onset from 2nd June,
2020.
On Cessation: ‘A normal to later than normal’ cessation is
expected across the country. The earliest cessation date, 26th September 2020
is expected around Katsina and the northern parts of Sokoto while the latest
cessation date is expected on the 28th December 2020 over the Niger-Delta
region.
Length of Growing Season: ‘A normal to longer than normal
length of the season’ is generally predicted across the country. In the year
2020, the length of the growing season is expected to span 110-160 days in the
Sahelian region of the north and 210-280 days in the south.
Rainfall Amount: A ‘normal to above normal’ rainfall is
expected generally in the country. It is expected that total rainfall amounts
will range from 400mm in the north to about 3000mm in the south.
Pre- Onset Rainfall (False Onset): Before the full establishment
of the onset of the planting season over the various ecological zones, a couple
of rainfall events are expected to occur which could be enormous and tend to
give a false start of the season.
Such rainfall events are not uncommon, however, their frequency
seems to be on the rise. Some forcing functions have been observed to be likely
responsible and will be monitored carefully and keep Nigerians informed.
Farmers should, therefore, avoid early planting during this period to avoid
losses.
Dry spells: A severe dry spell that may last up to 10 to 21
days is expected in areas such as Niger, Bauchi, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara,
Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Borno in the months of June and July which may
last between two to three weeks after the Onset. Farmers should moisture
conservation techniques to avoid crop losses during this period.
Flash Floods: The normal to near normal rainfall pattern in
the country does not rule out the possibility of isolated flash floods due to
increasing high-intensity rainfall at the peak of the season, especially in
areas that are naturally prone to flooding.
“As part of its response to address the challenges of
Climate Change, the Federal Government had developed a National Framework for
the Application of Climate Services (NFACS) as a downscaled version of the
Global Framework on Climate Services(GFCS) to enable Nigeria better manage the
risks while maximising opportunities arising from climate variability and
change.
“It will build a partnership, mobilise resources, coordinate
national response and activities as well as develop infrastructure for climate
services.
“A partnership approach, involving all relevant stakeholders
at all levels (Federal, States and LGAs), will ensure its success.
“A concerted and coordinated national effort elaborated in
this Framework will, therefore, contribute to improving the well-being of
Nigerians, particularly communities that are more vulnerable to impacts of
climate extremes.
“On this, NiMet, by virtue of its mandate, is largely responsible
for providing climate information and has established infrastructure delivering
climate services in the country. The role of NiMet in these regards is
therefore unequivocal and I assure Nigerians that the Federal Ministry of
Aviation will continue to support NiMet to discharge this responsibility to the
nation,” the Minister said.
“Some forcing functions have been observed to be likely
responsible and will be monitored carefully and keep Nigerians informed.
Farmers should therefore avoid early planting during this period to avoid
losses” the report revealed.
The Aviation Minister had in his keynote address stated that
since inception of the President Muhammadu Buhari administration, the
government has “clearly stated Nigeria’s commitment to combat climate change.
In keeping to this commitment, this country has been participating actively in
the UNFCCC activities, including the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which has
‘set the stage’ for implementation of emission control across the globe.
“The INDCs which have now fully become Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs), that Nigeria is implementing with priority areas in
mostly weather-sensitive sectors, especially Agriculture, Water Resources,
Energy, Transportation, Health and Disaster management. The role of NiMet in
implementing these NDCs is therefore obvious in the light of Section 7 of its
Establishment Act. 2003, which states the functions of the Agency”, the
Minister said.
According to him, “The Federal Government is very committed
to supporting the advancement of Meteorology for national development in all
sectors. Mr. President’s zeal in signing the ‘Paris Agreement’ in 2015 is a
testimony to his conviction that the ‘Climate Crisis’(which is increasing in
intensity and manifested by the day) will have to be tackled head-on.”
He observed that “this cannot be achieved if we are unable
to improve on tracking and monitoring extreme weather and climate events. We
shall in this respect continue to support and encourage NiMet to do more in
order to meet the aspirations of Mr. President and deliver on the country’s
commitment to the Paris Agreement.”
In their messages at the unveiling of the report,
stakeholders at the event urged NiMet to ensure that its predictions and
information get to the rural communities to enable the local farmers benefit.
This is even as farmers from different parts of the country eulogised the
agency for the accuracy level of its predictions that have helped them reduces
their losses and improve their yield.
Earlier in his welcome address, the Director, Applied
Meteorological Services, Engr. Mailadi Yusuf Abba Misau, noted that the agency
“has strives to ensure that the 2020 SRP and the 2019 Climate Review are issued
early enough for sector planners to start planning early to take advantage of
the predictions as they relate to their sectors, and, for researchers to take
stock of what happened last year. The result is what we are witnessing today
with your support and cooperation – the presentation of the 2020 SRP in the
first month of the year”
Speaking, the Director-General of NiMet, Prof Abubakar Sank
Mashi, while presenting the SRP, said that the ENSO-neutral phase observed in
December 2019 would most likely continue to dominate the country’s weather
system until the first quarter of 2020 and extend to April and the same phase
is expected to persist from May through July to September.
He disclosed that greater parts of the country are expected
to record near average temperatures, but said there would be some areas that
would experience temperature anomalies that are about two degrees Celsius above
normal, especially places in the extreme North.
Professor Mashi, advised that with SRP 2020 prediction, high
vigilance is required over the extreme northern fringes of Borno , Yobe, Jigawa
and Katsina states .
He also urged policy-makers to take note of these periods and make adequate arrangements to prevent the outbreak of diseases that are probable in such areas.
(NewsDotAfrica)