by Uchechukwu Okoroafor, Abuja
Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, an unwritten agreement to rotate the presidency between the Northern and Southern regions has served as a stabilizing framework to address the nation’s deep-rooted ethnic and regional divides. This practice reflects a recognition of Nigeria’s diverse political landscape and the need to ensure inclusivity in governance. The alternation of power began with: Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (South): Two terms (1999–2007). Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North): Partial tenure (2007–2010). Goodluck Jonathan (South): completed Yar’Adua’s term and served one full term (2010–2015). Muhammadu Buhari (North): Two terms (2015–2023). Bola Ahmed Tinubu (South): Began tenure in 2023. This sequence illustrates a deliberate effort to balance power between the two regions.
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By this principle, the South should retain power until 2031, completing an equitable cycle after the North’s extended hold under Buhari’s eight-year presidency. Atiku’s argument of disparity needed examination. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s critique that the South will have held power for 17 years versus the North’s 11 years under democratic rule by 2027 is selective in its framing. It neglects the broader historical dominance of the North. From independence in 1960 to 1999, the North controlled Nigeria’s leadership for over 40 years, mostly through military rule. This historical imbalance tilts the scales significantly in favour of the North.
Democratic governance must acknowledge the long-standing inequities of the past. The rotational presidency helps redress these disparities and promotes unity in a nation where regional distrust runs deep.
While the principle of rotation supports Southern retention of power in 2027, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration raises questions about the South’s stewardship. Tinubu’s tenure has faced widespread criticism. Rising inflation and the removal of subsidies without adequate palliatives signpost his failure as president.
There is also growing disillusionment with the government’s ability to address other national challenges effectively. It is therefore understandable why some Nigerians might call for a change. However, the failure of one administration should not derail the rotational framework. The South deserves the opportunity to present a capable leader to continue fostering national cohesion.
To honour the unwritten agreement and maintain national trust, the presidency must remain in the South until 2031. Breaking this tradition could deepen regional grievances and destabilize the fragile balance achieved since 1999.
The North has historically benefited disproportionately from power concentration. Allowing the South to complete its tenure ensures that all regions feel equally represented in the country’s leadership.
Atiku’s argument about electoral choice is valid—voters must decide based on competence. However, this decision should occur within the framework of regional equity. A Southern president in 2027 does not preclude choosing a competent candidate capable of uniting and leading Nigeria effectively.
While Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has faced widespread dissatisfaction, it does not negate the South’s right to retain power. Instead, it calls for the emergence of new, credible Southern candidates who can rebuild trust and deliver on the aspirations of Nigerians. Such leadership must prioritize national unity and development over regional or personal interests; address critical challenges like insecurity, unemployment, and infrastructure deficits; and reignite hope and confidence in governance through transparency and accountability.
Rejecting the rotation principle in 2027 poses significant risks. A Northern presidency in 2027 would fuel perceptions of marginalization in the South, potentially heightening regional tensions. Breaking this precedent
could destabilize the political landscape, leading to power struggles that harm Nigeria’s democracy. It could lead to erosion of trust, and citizens may lose faith in the ability of political elites to honour agreements critical to national unity.
As Nigeria approaches 2027, the focus should be on ensuring that leadership remains in the South while prioritizing competence. The South is home to many capable leaders with the vision and capacity to address the nation’s pressing issues. Such candidates can restore economic stability and public confidence in governance, strengthen institutions to ensure equitable resource distribution, and foster inclusivity to unite the nation across regional and ethnic lines.
The presidency must remain in the South in 2027 to uphold the principles of fairness, equity, and historical redress. While Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership has been
criticized, it does not invalidate the South’s right to complete its tenure. Nigerians must focus on electing a competent and visionary leader who can rebuild trust, address national challenges, and steer the country toward progress. The rotation agreement is not merely a political convenience but a critical instrument for maintaining Nigeria’s unity and stability.