Nigeria’s inflation battle recorded a major breakthrough in November 2025 as headline inflation eased to 14.45 percent, the lowest level in five years and below President Bola Tinubu’s 15 percent target, reinforcing signs that price pressures are steadily retreating after years of persistent acceleration.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed the figures in its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Monday, confirming that inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month in 2025. The November outcome represents a significant moderation from the 16.05 percent recorded in October, underscoring a sustained disinflation trend that began in April.
Grow your business with us
At 14.45 percent, Nigeria’s headline inflation has returned to levels last seen during the COVID-19 period, when inflation hovered around the 14 percent range in October 2020, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Analysts say the development marks a turning point after inflation surged to multi-decade highs in 2024, driven by currency depreciation, energy price shocks, food supply disruptions, and structural bottlenecks.
On a year-on-year basis, the NBS said the November 2025 inflation rate was 20.15 percentage points lower than the 34.60 percent recorded in November 2024.
“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year) decreased in November 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year,” the bureau stated.
However, the agency noted that inflationary pressures are not completely extinguished. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose to 1.22 percent, higher than the 0.93 percent recorded in October. This indicates that while prices are rising at a slower annual pace, the average price level still increased faster in November than in the preceding month.
Food prices, which account for the largest share of household spending and have been a major driver of hardship, also showed marked improvement. The food inflation rate declined to 11.08 percent year-on-year in November 2025, representing a sharp 28.85 percentage-point drop from the 39.93 percent recorded in November 2024.
According to the NBS, the steep decline in annual food inflation is “technically due to the change in the base year,” a statistical adjustment that moderates year-on-year comparisons. Nonetheless, the data confirms easing pressure relative to last year’s extreme price spikes.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 1.13 percent, up from -0.37 percent in October, reflecting renewed increases in the prices of key staples. The NBS attributed the rise to higher average prices of items such as dried tomatoes, cassava tuber, periwinkle (shelled), ground pepper, eggs, crayfish, egusi, oxtail and fresh onions.
The bureau also reported that the average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending November 2025 stood at 19.68 percent, down sharply from 38.67 percent recorded in November 2024 — a decline of 18.99 percentage points.
A breakdown of the data across states shows uneven price dynamics nationwide. On a year-on-year basis, food inflation was highest in Kogi (17.83 percent), Ogun (16.52 percent), and Rivers (16.11 percent). In contrast, Imo (3.52 percent), Katsina (3.65 percent), and Akwa Ibom (4.52 percent) recorded the slowest increases in food prices.
Month-on-month figures painted a more volatile picture. Yobe (9.52 percent), Katsina (6.61 percent), and Ondo (6.04 percent) recorded the sharpest increases in food inflation, while Imo (-6.49 percent), Nasarawa (-5.48 percent), and Enugu (-2.54 percent) experienced outright declines in food prices during the month.
The sustained slowdown in inflation comes amid tight monetary conditions. On November 25, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria retained the monetary policy rate at 27 percent, maintaining its hawkish stance aimed at anchoring inflation expectations, stabilising the naira and consolidating recent gains.
Economists say the latest inflation data strengthens the case that Nigeria’s aggressive monetary tightening, coupled with gradual improvements in food supply and base effects, is beginning to yield results.
However, they caution that risks remain, particularly from food supply shocks, energy costs, and seasonal spending pressures.