The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) yesterday said the oil and condensates production target of 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026 is an ambitious jump from 2023 levels of around 1.6 million bpd.
Africa’s biggest oil exporter has suffered declining production due to crude theft and vandalism of pipelines in the Niger Delta, as well as low investment in the sector, which has hit government revenue.
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But President Bola Tinubu’s government said oil majors have committed to investing $13.5 billion in the short term, following his meetings with senior executives from TotalEnergies, Shell, and ExxonMobil. The regulator said in its 2024–2026 action plan that it would direct the development of oil assets to areas less prone to theft and vandalism and provide support for alternative crude oil evacuation routes.
Oil firms require NUPRC’s approval for new pipeline routes. Production is expected to rise from 1.8 million bpd this year and progress to 2.6 million bpd in 2026, NUPRC said.
Two of the three consultancies tasked by OPEC+ to verify Nigeria’s output said in November that the country was unlikely to reach its own production target this year.
NUPRC is also working to cut the cost of oil production to about $20 a barrel, down from between $25 and $40, by providing incentives to oil producers.
“The commission will set up a framework for crude oil and gas transportation and/or handling costs based on a standardised tariff and implement an open access regime for upstream oil and gas pipelines and ancillary facilities,” the regulator said. High signature bonuses—one-off fees paid to secure exploration blocks—would be reduced to attract more investment and raise oil production, it added.
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