BY IBRAHIM MOHAMMED, Abuja
Barely two weeks to Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election, there are strong indications that the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) is in a pole position to win the race and emerge the first executive president of Nigeria elected from South East since Nigeria’s Independence in 1960.
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All over the world the clearest indications of voters’ preferences before elections are through the conduct of polls by interviewing voters by professional pollsters. Many pollsters have established reputations that had made them reliable. For instance, ANAP Foundation/NOI Polls have been conducted since 2011. Investigations revealed that ANAP/NOI Poll predicted accurately that the presidential candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan was likely to win the 2011 presidential election, and he won. It also predicated accurately that General Muhammadu Buhari will win the 2015 presidential election and Buhari won. It again predicated correctly that Buhari will win the 2019 presidential election and Buhari won.
These polls results can be verified on their websites.
Ahead of the 2023 presidential election in the first of two polls by ANAP/NOI, the first conducted by NOI Polls and commissioned by ANAP Foundation in September 2022 showed that Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) would win if Nigeria’s presidential election was held then. The poll points to a three-horse presidential race between Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party. They, however, described Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party who came fourth in the poll as a ‘dark horse’.
“The results showed a significant lead for Mr Peter Obi with 21% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who are both tied in second place. Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him,” a statement by ANAP foundation announcing the result of the poll shows. The statement added that Obi’s eight percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him completely from a leading pack of candidates scoring 21%, 13% and 13% respectively.
Another poll in September 2022 conducted by a public advocacy group We2Geda Foundation said the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, is ahead of other candidates by 51 percent. The poll result was dated September 17, 2022 and signed by the Chairman, Board of Trustees of We2Geda, Ibrahim Abdulkareem; as well as a member of the BoT, Muna Obioha.
The group said 51 percent of respondents suggested voting for Obi as their preferred candidate, 25 percent suggested voting for Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ranked third in the voter preference poll with 19 percent.
“Further analysis also shows that Peter Obi remained a consistent favourite in the four major geopolitical zones including North-Central, South-South, South-West and South-East, while Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was the poll leader in the North East and North-West zones,” the group said.
We2Geda explained that Nigerians between 26 and 50 years constituted the highest number of respondents in a random survey with a total of 15,438 registered voters in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
And as 2023 general elections draw closer, Nigerians in various parts of the country have mostly settled for Labour Party (LP) presidential candidate Peter Obi as their preferred choice in a physical poll conducted in December 2022, with barely two months to D-day. The result of polls conducted between the 1st and 4th of December by the media outfit BantuPage, showed that Labour Party’s Obi was preferred by most of the eligible voters in the Federal Capital Territory, Southeast, South-south and North-central geopolitical zones. The overall poll revealed that 37% of the polled respondent spread in all the geo-graphical zones preferred Obi. While 15%, 14% and 4% preferred the APC, PDP and NNPP respectively, 17% of the respondents were still undecided, 9% do not intend to vote with 4% unwilling to disclose their preferred candidates.
In a second poll by ANAP Foundation/NOI in December 2022, presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) Peter Obi widened his lead over Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
According to details of research released by ANAP Foundation which funded the opinion poll, the details of the poll conducted in December, however, showed a remarkable increase for Tinubu in the Southeast where support for the APC presidential candidate doubled just as Peter Obi lost support in his Southeast base by 20 per cent points slipping from 70 per cent to 50 per cent. President of ANAP Foundation, Atedo Peterside, who announced the latest details of the voting intentions of Nigerians on Channels Television’s Politics Today said that support for Obi jumped from 21 per cent in the September poll to 23 per cent nationally in the poll conducted in December.
Tinubu was unmoved at 13 per cent compared to September while Atiku shrunk from 13 per cent nationally to 10 per cent. Obi led the polls in the South-East, South-South and North-Central geopolitical zones.
Just as in September, Atiku led in the Northeast and Northwest geopolitical zones while Tinubu led in the South-West. Obi’s loss of support in the South-East was compensated with the jump in support in the North-Central where support spiked from 16 per cent to 24 percent. Obi also jumped to 10 from 8 per cent in the North-East.
The poll also showed a remarkable increase for Tinubu in the North Central moving from 2% to 9% and also in the South-East moving from 4 per cent to 8 per cent. According to the NOI poll, Atiku slipped from 6 per cent in September to 3 per cent in the South-South region that had been considered the stronghold of the PDP with Tinubu and Obi at 40 per cent and 80 per cent respectively in the opinion poll.
Also, the recent face-to-face nationwide poll on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections by Nextier, an Africa-focused consulting firm, has tipped the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi as the favourite to win. This is as the poll results also suggest a potential runoff for the Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential election.
Nextier is a multi-competency Africa-focused consulting firm with core competencies in strategy, finance, policy research, analysis, design, and implementation. The poll showed Labour Party leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party at 6 percent.
Nextier conducted its second presidential poll on Friday, January 27, 2023, four weeks before the scheduled presidential elections. The team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states. The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25 percent of the votes in 23 states.
Therefore, the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.
Nextier Founding Partner, Patrick Okigbo, stated that the presidential election is going to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades. “It is exciting to see Nigerians take their civic responsibilities seriously.” He confirmed that, in addition to the two national polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s elections and other development issues.
“Most registered voters (72 percent) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters.
Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices. Eighty-three percent of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the elections. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.
“Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77 percent of respondents indicated that they will vote in this election, while 63 percent stated that they will definitely vote. This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities.
“Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors: Insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Only 52 percent of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair. Only 47 percent of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.
“Radio (33 percent) and WhatsApp/social media (29 percent) should be the key communication channels for political parties ahead of the election day. About 16 percent of respondents said they get information on the candidates and the political parties from their families and friends.
“The same percentage gets their information from television. Only 2 percent get their information from their religious leaders, while 1percent get theirs from traditional leaders. There are slight variations between urban and rural voters.
According to the result, although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.
A new poll in February 7, 2023, by Stears Nigeria has also shown that the candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi is at 41% lead ahead of the February 25 election. Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party are following closely at 31% and 20%, respectively.
However, 36% of the respondents remained silent when asked who they would likely vote for. Stears, in the poll released recently, stated that “poll covers 6,220 respondents across Nigeria’s 36 States, making it the largest telephone-based electoral poll in Nigeria.”
However, the model used by Stears also shows that Tinubu will win the election in the event of a low turnout of voters. The former Lagos State governor will get 39% of the votes, while Obi and Atiku are to get 32% and 22% of the votes respectively.
Also in another poll, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi, had taken the lead in a fresh survey, conducted by Market Trends International (MTI), on all presidential candidates in the 2023 election. Obi was placed ahead of Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress (APC), Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), Omoyele Sowore of African Action Congress (AAC), among others.
MTI, a market research organisation, has been operating in Nigeria and other African countries for over 30 years. The agency is also skilled in both qualitative and quantitative studies.
Executive Director, MTI, Victor Ozinegbe Ebhomenye, said the survey, conducted between November 9 and 29, 2022, indicated that Tinubu had 19 percent respondents, Atiku had 16 percent respondents; Kwankwaso had 14 percent respondents, Sowore had zero percent, others had five percent, while those that refused and undecided had one percent each.
He said 44 percent of the respondents indicated that they would likely vote for Obi, the former governor of Anambra State, in the 2023 presidential election.
“This may have come as a surprise to Nigerians because the Labour Party and Obi had no presence in the Nigerian presidential scene as of December 2021″, Ebhomenye said.
“Obi has picked up pace in the race since he declared interest to run with the Labour Party as the party’s presidential candidate at its national convention and presidential primary in Asaba, the capital of Delta State, on Monday, May 30, after other aspirants like former presidential adviser, Pat Utomi; Faduri Joseph and Olubusola Emmanuel-Tella, stepped down,” Ebhomenye explained.
Similarly, a new poll released on Friday, February 10, 2023, shows that Mr Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate, is still the preferred choice of voters ahead of the upcoming presidential election in Nigeria on February 25, 2023. Premise Data Corp, a San Francisco-based polling company, on behalf of Bloomberg News, conducted the poll.
The results show that 93% of the 2,384 Nigerian respondents have decided on their choice and 66% plan to vote for Peter Obi, while 18% plan to vote for Bola Tinubu and 10% plan to vote for Atiku Abubakar.
This marks the sixth consecutive poll in which Peter Obi has been the most popular candidate among those surveyed by Premise for Bloomberg.
When asked for comment, Valentine Ozigbo, the Special Adviser to Mr Obi on Technology and Strategic Alliances, told journalists that this result is not surprising as it mirrors the campaign’s internal polling and is the only natural outcome given Mr Obi’s inspiring candidacy.
“The Nigerian people have embraced the message of hope His Excellency Peter Obi is sending out in his campaign,” Mr Ozigbo said.
“Peter Obi is the only candidate taking his message to the hurting masses of Nigeria. He goes where even government officials fear going, like Southern Kaduna, Biu, relief camps in Benue, Abuja, and other places where Nigerians live on the margins of society.
“It is only natural that after decades of uninspired leadership, Nigerians would embrace a candidate who comes with a fresh message, who has the character to deliver on his promise and the track record to back up his claims,” Ozigbo, a respected Nigerian business leader, added.
The polling company used a smartphone survey and used stratified sampling based on age, gender, and location across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones to ensure national representation.
The results showed that Peter Obi had the highest poll numbers among male and female respondents, particularly in the 18-24 and 25-34 age groups, where he polled at 69% and 73%, respectively. On the other hand, Bola Tinubu polled 18% and 12% for the same age groups, while Atiku Abubakar polled 10% for both.
The deteriorating economic conditions and cost of living crisis, coupled with increasing insecurity, have propelled Peter Obi to the forefront of the race as the most viable option to fix the country, given his experience, track record, and plan for Nigeria.
Previous polls also showed Peter Obi of the Labour Party as the candidate with the highest popularity and favorability. For example, a We2Geda Foundation poll conducted on September 17, 2022 showed that Peter Obi was ahead of other candidates with 51% of the vote, while Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party came in second with 25% and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress came in third with 19%.
A December 2022 poll by the ANAP Foundation/NOI found that 23% of respondents planned to vote for Peter Obi, while 13% said they would vote for Bola Tinubu and 10% indicated their intention to vote for Atiku Abubakar.
A Stears poll released on February 8, 2023, where 6,220 Nigerians were polled, showed that Peter Obi was the most widely accepted candidate, with 27% of those polled choosing him as their preferred president, while 15% chose Bola Tinubu of the APC and 12% chose Atiku Abubakar of the PDP.
The latest Nextier poll, released on February 5, 2023, showed that Peter Obi of the Labour Party was leading by 37%, followed by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP with 27% and Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress with 24%. It is worth noting that the voter turnout is expected to be a major factor in determining the outcome of the election. In the 2019 election, voter turnout was at a record low of 35%. But in all, the polls point to Peter Obi’s victory in February 25, 2023 presidential election if it is conducted free and fair.