The World Bank has projected that inflation may hit 25 per cent in 2023 as a result of petrol subsidy removal, adding that the policy will create additional fiscal space and reduces reliance on financing from the CBN, curbing growth of the money supply.
This projection according to the report, as contained in the June 2023 edition of the Nigeria Development Update, will be a significant increase in 2023, headline inflation will fall by the first quarter of 2024.
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Part of the report read: “The removal of the petrol subsidy is anticipated to cause a temporary increase in inflation in the upcoming months before contributing to disinflation in the medium term.
“The price increases resulting from the subsidy removal will have a one-time impact on prices, primarily affecting petrol purchases for transportation, power generation, and certain services.
“Headline inflation is expected to rise from 18.8 percent in 2022 to 25 percent in 2023. However, by Q1 of 2024, the subsidy removal will start to have a disinflationary effect, meaning that it will alleviate inflationary pressures despite higher petrol prices.
“This is because the subsidy removal creates additional fiscal space and reduces reliance on financing from the CBN, curbing growth of the money supply. To limit the risk of so-called secondround effects, where one-off price increases trigger more generalized inflation including through wage-price spirals, it will be important to adopt macro-fiscal policy settings that are conducive to price stability.”
The World Bank report also noted that consumer price inflation has surged and is currently one of the highest globally, which is related to Nigeria’s fiscal imbalance and points to the urgency of reform efforts.
It added that the CBN implemented measures to control rising inflation, including raising the monetary policy rate by 700 basis points, but these proved ineffective and monetary policy remained loose overall in the first half of the year.
” high inflation has increased poverty in the short-term, pushing into poverty between January and May 2023”, it said an estimated 4 million Nigerians
The Washington-based lender also said about 7.1 million poor Nigerians would become poor if the Federal Government failed to compensate or provide palliatives for them, following the removal of fuel subsidy.
It would be recalled that the National Bureau of Statistics recently disclosed that inflation in the country rose to 22.41 per cent in May, which is the highest in about 19 years.