BY IBRAHIM MOHAMMED, Abuja
Producing a president of South East or Igbo extraction has never been as close as it is in this election circle with the former governor of Anambra State Peter Obi emerged the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP). This is even as Peter Obi has emerged a frontrunner in the presidential race using the platform of hitherto little-known Labour Party (LP), beating off challenges from formidable political parties like the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as various opinion polls have shown.
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Ahead of the 2023 presidential election, many Nigerians had hoped and wished that the next president of Nigeria should come from the South East for fairness, justice and equity after the eight years of President Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim from Northern Nigeria. Under Nigeria’s unwritten power sharing formula, it is taken for granted that if the presidency stays in the North for eight years it is natural that it would move to the South. Recall that after the eight years of President Olusegun Obasanjo, from South West and a Christian from 1999 to 2007 power moved to the North where late Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, a Northern Muslim emerged the president winning under the platform of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Three years under his administration, Yar’Adua died and his vice, Goodluck Jonathan completed his tenue in 2011 and went ahead to contest for president in 2011 and won under the platform of the PDP. Jonathan was defeated by a coalition of opposition parties that formed the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2015 with Retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari, a Northern Muslim as its presidential candidate and vice president Yemi Osinbajo from South West.
After eight years of Buhari, power was expected to go south. Many agreed that since the South West has produced Obasanjo as president for eight years and vice president Osinbajo for eight years by May 29, 2023 and the South-South has produced Goodluck Jonathan as president for about six years, common sense dictates that it is the turn of the South East to produce the next president and many had advised that all the political parties, especially the major ones, the PDP and the APC should zone their tickets to the zone.
However, the South East politicians in the APC and the PDP were passed over and the ruling APC gave its ticket to the highest bidder within the party and former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu from South West was the beneficiary, while the PDP also handed its ticket to another highest bidder and former vice president Alhaji Atiku Abubakar from North East. The South East was treated like an orphan by the APC and PDP respectively.
The South East would have been totally inconsequential but for Peter Obi’s smart decision to exit from the PDP and move to the Labour Party (LP) few weeks to the PDP primaries. That move has given Nigerians, especially those underserved by PDP and APC hope, while the chances of South East presidency has never been any brighter as indicated by several opinion polls by professional pollsters.
A clear majority of respondents in an opinion poll by Bloomberg, the United States media company said they intend to vote for Peter Obi, a former state governor, in the elections scheduled for February 2023.
The results of the survey conducted for Bloomberg News by Premise Data Corp. were published in September 2022 as the official campaign to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari kicked off.
Of the 92% of participants who said they’ve decided how to vote, 72% named Obi as their first choice. Of those who are still unsure, 45% said the 61-year-old is their preferred candidate. The poll shows Obi is most-favored candidate before February election. The San Francisco-headquartered data company surveyed 3,973 Nigerians from Sept. 5-20. Respondents to the app-based poll were selected from quotas developed by age, gender and location across the country’s six geopolitical zones. Results were then weighted against the original quotas to ensure national representation. The candidates of the two parties that have ruled Nigeria since the restoration of democracy in 1999 fared less well. Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress garnered 16% of decided voters and 23% of those yet to make up their minds. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party tallied 9% and 17% respectively.
Also in December 2022, a nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited revealed a significant lead by Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) emerged as the lone outsider.
The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 23% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 2% of voters proposing to vote for him.
Again, in January 2023, Labour Party (LP) standard-bearer, Peter Obi for the umpteenth time, emerged the most preferred candidate to win this month’s presidential election, according to the new poll concluded by Nigerians Decide, an independent research think-tank based in the United States of America. Peter Obi, princely garnered 1,856,537 to lead his closest rivals Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC); and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
Atiku had 1,539,568 votes, Tinubu garnered 1,486,401 and Kwankwaso polled 12,907 votes according to the latest poll released by Nigerians Decide.
Less than 24 hours after the release of Nigerians Decide poll showed that Peter Obi, the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, had expanded his lead in the race for president, another national survey conducted by Stears had predicted the election of Obi as the next President of Nigeria in the event of the massive turnout.
According to a statement released by Stears, an Africa-focused data-driven company founded at the London School of Economics, the company said the “Stears electoral poll and prediction model indicates that Peter Obi is Nigeria’s most popular presidential candidate and should win the presidential ticket as long as Nigerians follow through on their stated intent to vote”.
According to the poll, Peter Obi has a good chance of winning the 2023 Nigerian presidential election if voter turnout is high. The poll revealed that Peter Obi could win the election with as many as 41% of the votes cast, ahead of Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the All Progresses Congress (APC), who is at 31%, and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), at 20%.
Several other polls beside the aforementioned has tipped Obi as the candidate most likely to win the election, this is despite the fact that many South East elites are not working for his successes, especially the Igbo elites in the ruling APC and the main opposition party the PDP. In fact, many of them are busy marketing the presidential candidate of PDP Alhaji Atiku Abubakar if they are in PDP or presidential candidate of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu if they are in APC. Investigations revealed that many of the elites campaigning against Obi in the South East are of the believe that he cannot garner enough votes and spreads to emerge victorious and as such pitching their tents with their candidates even when it is becoming obvious of the likelihood of Obi victory as the election polls have clearly indicated. Many of them are positioning themselves to be ministers and contractors if PDP or APC wins the presidency, even when it is becoming obvious that APC and PDP in the last 24 years have failed to meet the expectations of Nigerians. Even the governor of Anambra State Prof Chukwuma Soludu of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) had written copious article on why Peter Obi cannot win which had earned him serious backlash that would reverberate for years to come. This is even as many have accused Soludo of presidential ambition and thus does not want Obi to spoil his chances of becoming president.
However, while many Igbo elites are shying away from supporting Obi his nationwide support base is increasing daily with key endorsement by the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural association, Afenifere; Pan Niger Delta Organisation, PANDEF led by Chief Edwin Clarke; Middle Belt Forum and several others. Our investigations show that Peter Obi has literarily locked down South East and South South and is tipped to win 70 per cent of North Central. As a matter of fact the new poll by Shears show that Peter Obi is the only candidate that could win 25 per cent in five out of the six geopolitical zones; Tinubu got 25 per cent in four out of six geopolitical zone, while Atiku Abubakar was able to get 25 per cent spread in only two geopolitical zones.